Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Mar 16-20: Fedspeak reigns

DJIA 18051 // S&P 2097 // NASDAQ 5004 // 10-YR TRE 1.887% //
EURO 1.092 // OIL 47.69 // GOLD 1191 // BIT 246
Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last week, removing the "patience" wording from FOMC minutes, but remaining cagey about specifics of when the Fed might raise the target rate. Markets interpreted the report bullishly, sending stocks skyrocketing.

5132.52

Highest-ever level of the Nasdaq, set on March 10, 2000 during the "Tech Bubble." The tech-heavy index has seen a tremendous run-up recently to within several percent of its all-time high, attributed to lower borrowing rates and the renaissance of the technology sector in the US.

Despite having a down day on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite is still thisclose to breaking 5,000 and ever nearer to breaking its Tech Bubble record

If there's been one bet on Wall Street that seems common of late, its putting money on continued strength of the US dollar. That presumption got turned upside down last Wednesday, when the Fed issued its latest policy statement and tempered expectations about US growth.

Starbuck's CEO Howard Schultz says Race Together "the right thing to do", CNN Money
Starbuck's CEO is not one to back down about an issue he cares about and last Wednesday he staunchly defended the company's much lampooned effort to improve race relations.

Problem: the bond "conundrum" is back, CNN Money
The 10-year Treasury started last week at 2.11% and tumbled to 1.94% during Janet Yellen's comments, as bond prices (inversely related to yields) we pushed up. But as the Fed move towards raising rates, bond yields should be moving up. What gives?

  • M 3/23: Chicago Fed, Existing home sales
  • T 3/24: CPI, PMI Manufacturing, New home sales, Richmond Fed
  • W 3/25: Durable goods orders, EIA petroleum status
  • T 3/26: Jobless claims, PMI services, Kansas City Fed
  • F 3/27: GDP, Consumer sentiment
Predictions from last week: 2/3 All-Time: 17/30
  • "Patient" removed: CORRECT
  • Euro slide against dollar: WRONG
  • Oil back above $45: CORRECT
Weekly Predictions:
  1. Lululemon misses earnings
  2. Another US presidential candidate declares
  3. Consumer sentiment positive

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