Showing posts with label MCD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MCD. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Feb 16-20: DuPont getting peltzed

DJIA 17998 // S&P 2095 // NASDAQ 4888 // 10-YR TRE 2.085% //
EURO 1.139 // OIL 51.27 // GOLD 1205 // BIT 240
Trian Fund Management founding partner Nelson Peltz is accusing DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman and her staff of not doing enough internally to better unlock value for shareholders.

67%

Percent over and above S&P 500 returns that DuPont stock has returned to shareholders since 2009.

Nelson Peltz's activist hedge fund, Trian, which already owns a 2.7% stake in DuPont, is pursuing 4 seats on DuPont's board. The US-based materials and chemicals company has been doing well recently, but Peltz insists that Trian's guidance is the leadership for outperformance--not the leadership of CEO Ellen Kullman. Peltz insists there is yet more value to unlock for shareholders.

Tim Edwards walks through the decision-making of fictional country Atlantis: should they or should they not debase their currency? On the one hand, austerity measures aren't popular with their citizens, and stimulus would be exciting for equity investors while debt should become suddenly cheaper (in dollar terms). On the downside is the specter of inflation. What to do?

Aggregate Income Shows Consumers Ready To Take Growth Baton, Bloomberg Briefs
Economist Carl Riccadonna looks at last week's employment report and more specifically aggregate income to see if US consumers are ready to keep spending. While some pundits cite manufacturing and industrial production specifically in energy as the reason for the US' gradual recovery from crisis, there are signs that a consumption-driven surge may be on the way--or is already here.

Apple: $710 Billion and Counting, WSJ
The eye-catching graphic on the article's front page pretty much sums up the buzz: AAPL's market price is now 2 times Google's, 2.5 times Walmart's, 4 times Bank of America's, 8 times McDonald's, 12 times GM's, and 24 times Twitter's. Tim Cook cited high demand for iPhones in China as one reason for the explosion in value. Carl Icahn is calling for a valuation in excess of $1 trillion.

Convertibles Stay Hot, WSJ
US-listed convertible bond deal volume has jumped 49% since this time last year, totaling $5.7 billion. Convertible bonds get their name from paying their investors interest, like a bond, until they are converted into the company's stock at a certain predetermined strike price--much like an option. The spike in volume is attributed to low interest rates and bullishness in stocks.

Vocabulary: gathered throughout meeting, definitions from www.investopedia.com
  • Convertible bond http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/convertiblebond.asp
  • Delinquent http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delinquent.asp
  • Volatility http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp
  • PMI Manufacturing index http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi.asp
Calendar: from Barron's, Nasdaq Economic Calendar
  • Monday: (President's Day)
  • Tuesday: Empire State manufacturing survey, Housing market index; FOSL, FDP, JACK, TAXI, GT, VNO, WM
  • Wednesday: Housing starts, PPI, Industrial production, FOMC minutes; ACT, ANGI, CAR, DENN, HLT, MAR
  • Thursday: Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey; DTV, EQIX, INTU, LLC, PSA, TMUS, TRUE, WMT
  • Friday: PMI Manufacturing index; DE
Predictions from last week: 3/3 All-Time: 10/15
  • US import prices fall: CORRECT
  • Zoetis beats: CORRECT
  • Oil rallies: CORRECT
Weekly Predictions: gathered at conclusion of weekly meeting
  1. Chinese yuan will weaken against the US dollar
  2. Dow & S&P will continue record highs as Greece signals acceptance of some of EU's austerity program
  3. PMI Manufacturing will indicate expansion (score of 50 or more)
Participants: T. Aygun, K. Meenan

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Feb 2-6: I'm lovin' it

DJIA 17327 // S&P 2021 // NASDAQ 4189 // 10-YR TRE 1.673% //
EURO 1.138 // OIL 50.85 // GOLD 1271 // BIT 240
With Seattle driving for a game-winning touchdown, New England cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) comes up with perhaps the greatest plays in Patriots history, securing the win with an interception. The thrilling Super Bowl ended up being the most watched television event in history, with a record 114.4 million people tuning in.

$18,000


Current price of a 500ml bottle of McDonald's Big Mac Special Sauce, being auctioned on eBay by McDonald's Australia. This is equivalent to about $23,000 Australian dollars. There are still 8 days left in the auction.

Super Bowl breaks record for US TV viewing, WSJ
Nielsen has reported that this year's Super Bowl, a nail-biter that saw the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks with less than a minute left, was the most watched US television event ever, attracting 114.4 million viewers. Super Bowl XLIX is the seventh straight Super Bowl to draw over 100 million viewers, and the 4th bowl game in 5 years to set an all-time record.

Shake Shack more than doubles its IPO price in market debut, DealBook
Shake Shack's IPO, with a stock price that more than doubled on it's first trading day from $21 to more than $45, revealed tremendous excitement for the current trend in investment in "fast casual" restaurants, including Zoe's Kitchen, El Pollo Loco, Chipotle, and Habit Restaurants. The public offering expanded the wealth of famous New York restauranteur Danny Meyer to $340 million. Meyer helped start Shake Shack to provide extra jobs to employees outside nightly work hours.

McDonalds will now accept selfies and hugs as payment, Business Insider
Starting on February 2nd and running until the 14th, McDonalds will allow customers to "pay with lovin'" (expressions of love including selfies and hugs) during predetermined times at certain stores. The company announced the Valentine's Day ad campaign during a commercial spot on the Super Bowl.

Chipotle is an expensive burrito, WSJ
Chipotle, which has provided a 632% return to investors since its IPO nine years ago, is set to report earnings on Tuesday amid a torrent of news and investment in other food chains. Chipotle, which was once almost entirely owned by McDonalds, stopped selling carnitas for a time after poor treatment of pigs by a supplier was revealed. Among other things, McDonald's is currently reeling from a beef scandal in China, which it said played a part in in EPS falling by 1% last quarter.

Commodities traders are anticipating that lower fuel prices spell a continued fall in food commodity prices including fruits and meats. Oil prices have plummeted this summer, with other commodities struggling to keep up with the fall. Falling input costs could mean continued high margins at restaurant chains including Shake Shack and Habit Restaurants, both of which recently started trading publicly.

Vocabulary:
Fast casual
Nielsen
Danny Meyer
Malcolm Butler

Calendar, Dates: (Nasdaq Economic Calendar)
  • Mon Feb 2: PMI Manufacturing, Construction spending; FLWS, RCII
  • Tues Feb 3: Factory orders; ADM, AN, BP, CMG, NYT
  • Weds Feb 4: ADP Employment, ISM Non-manufacturing index; UHAL, CLX, EVR, GM
  • Thur Feb 5: International trade, Jobless claims, Productivity and costs; ATVI, BEBE, BWLD
  • Fri Feb 6: Employment situation; MCO, MSG, WETF
    Predictions from Jan 26-30: 1 / 3   All-Time: 5 / 9
    • AAL beats: CORRECT
    • CVX misses: WRONG
    • Bitcoin up: WRONG
    Predictions for Feb 2-6:
    • Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) misses earnings on pork supplier problems
    • Buffalo Wild Wings (NYSE: BWLD) beats forecasts on falling commodity prices
    • Non-farm payrolls continue to increase as US economy improves
    Participants: K. Meenan