Feb 23-27: And the award goes to...

DJIA 18068 // S&P 2103 // NASDAQ 4439 // 10-YR TRE 2.09% //

EURO 1.133 // OIL 49.14 // GOLD 1198 // BIT 236

Applicants at a recent job fair. The US economy has added 3.2 million jobs in the past year, helping to drop the unemployment rate to 5.7%.

283,000

Applications last week for unemployment aid. A drop in applications for aid is a positive sign that the economy is absorbing job seekers. Although more and more Americans are finding jobs, economists are arguing about the indicator's significance for the health of the overall economy.

Applications for US unemployment aid plummet to 283,000, AP via Yahoo Finance

Weekly applications for unemployment aid dropped by 21,000 last week to their lowest level since last October. The drop could be attributed in part to the economy adding 3.2 million jobs in the past year, helping to lower unemployment to 5.7% in January from 6.6% twelve months before. Number of people quitting jobs increased by 2.1, generally seen as a strong sign of job alternatives.

Walmart Raises Wages as Market Gets Tighter, WSJ

Following the lead of Gap and others, Walmart announced last Wednesday that it would raise associates' salary to $9 by this April and $10 by next year. The market responded by pushing WMT shares lower amid wage expense concerns. Investors are taking this as a sign that employment, at least at the lower end of the market, is tightening noticeably in recent weeks.

Economy's Supply Side Splutters, WSJ

Complicating bullishness associated with recent rates of employment is the fact that, at 3.6%, job vacancies in December were at their highest rate since 2001--well before the recession. Analysts are taking this as a sign that many employees are not well matched to the jobs currently available. Productivity has grown at just 1.3% per year since 2007, the slowest rate of increase since 1970.

Lenders Step Up Financing to Subprime Borrowers, WSJ

Almost four out of every 10 loans for cars, credit cards, and personal borrowing in the first 11 months of 2014 went to borrowers with FICO credit scores of 650 or less, or "subprime borrowers." These loans carry higher returns for investors, but also a greater chance of default. Autos, as opposed to credit cards or personal loans, are easier to cover because vehicles can be repossessed by lenders.

Fed Tiptoes into Rate Hike Debate, WSJ
The debate about when the Fed will raise interest rates continues, as Janet Yellen and her advisors remain extremely cagey about changing the wording used in FOMC minutes to give indications to markets either way--about a nearer-term or longer-term increase. One thing is clear--despite strong growth in jobs numbers, inflation is not yet at a level that the Fed would like it to be.

Vocabulary:

• Unemployment rate
• FOMC
• Labor productivity
• Janet Yellen

Economic Calendar:

• Mn Feb 23: Existing home sales, Dallas Fed Mfg survey; CHGG, HSBC, SF
• Tu Feb 24: Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer confidence; ; SAM, FSLR, FLTX, HD, ODP
• We Feb 25: New home sales, Janet Yellen speaks; CVC, CPB, DLTR, LOW, PLKI, TGT
• Th Feb 26: CPI, Durable goods, Jobless claims; BUD, GPS, JCP, LYV, RBS, SRE
• Fr Feb 27: GDP, Chicago PMI, Pending home sales

Predictions from last week: 2 / 3   All-Time: 12 / 18

• Chinese yuan weakens: WRONG
• Dow, S&P continue record highs :CORRECT
• Manufacturing expands: CORRECT

Weekly Predictions:

1. Yellen keeps "patient" wording in FOMC dialogue
2. CPI less food and energy at 0.0%, below consensus
3. GDP on Friday indicates annualized rate of over 3.5% economic growth

Participants: J. O'Brien, K. Meenan

Feb 16-20: DuPont getting peltzed

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Trian Fund Management founding partner Nelson Peltz is accusing DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman and her staff of not doing enough internally to better unlock value for shareholders.

67%

Percent over and above S&P 500 returns that DuPont stock has returned to shareholders since 2009.

Peltz's Firm, DuPont Trade Salvos, WSJ

Nelson Peltz's activist hedge fund, Trian, which already owns a 2.7% stake in DuPont, is pursuing 4 seats on DuPont's board. The US-based materials and chemicals company has been doing well recently, but Peltz insists that Trian's guidance is the leadership for outperformance--not the leadership of CEO Ellen Kullman. Peltz insists there is yet more value to unlock for shareholders.

Currency Wars: Pandering to Debase, Seeking Alpha

Tim Edwards walks through the decision-making of fictional country Atlantis: should they or should they not debase their currency? On the one hand, austerity measures aren't popular with their citizens, and stimulus would be exciting for equity investors while debt should become suddenly cheaper (in dollar terms). On the downside is the specter of inflation. What to do?

Aggregate Income Shows Consumers Ready To Take Growth Baton, Bloomberg Briefs

Economist Carl Riccadonna looks at last week's employment report and more specifically aggregate income to see if US consumers are ready to keep spending. While some pundits cite manufacturing and industrial production specifically in energy as the reason for the US' gradual recovery from crisis, there are signs that a consumption-driven surge may be on the way--or is already here.

Apple: $710 Billion and Counting, WSJ
The eye-catching graphic on the article's front page pretty much sums up the buzz: AAPL's market price is now 2 times Google's, 2.5 times Walmart's, 4 times Bank of America's, 8 times McDonald's, 12 times GM's, and 24 times Twitter's. Tim Cook cited high demand for iPhones in China as one reason for the explosion in value. Carl Icahn is calling for a valuation in excess of $1 trillion.

Convertibles Stay Hot, WSJ
US-listed convertible bond deal volume has jumped 49% since this time last year, totaling $5.7 billion. Convertible bonds get their name from paying their investors interest, like a bond, until they are converted into the company's stock at a certain predetermined strike price--much like an option. The spike in volume is attributed to low interest rates and bullishness in stocks.

Vocabulary: gathered throughout meeting, definitions from www.investopedia.com

• Convertible bond http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/convertiblebond.asp
• Delinquent http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delinquent.asp
• Volatility http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp
• PMI Manufacturing index http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi.asp

Calendar: from Barron's, Nasdaq Economic Calendar

• Monday: (President's Day)
• Tuesday: Empire State manufacturing survey, Housing market index; FOSL, FDP, JACK, TAXI, GT, VNO, WM
• Wednesday: Housing starts, PPI, Industrial production, FOMC minutes; ACT, ANGI, CAR, DENN, HLT, MAR
• Thursday: Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey; DTV, EQIX, INTU, LLC, PSA, TMUS, TRUE, WMT
• Friday: PMI Manufacturing index; DE

Predictions from last week: 3/3 All-Time: 10/15

• US import prices fall: CORRECT
• Zoetis beats: CORRECT
• Oil rallies: CORRECT

Weekly Predictions: gathered at conclusion of weekly meeting

1. Chinese yuan will weaken against the US dollar
2. Dow & S&P will continue record highs as Greece signals acceptance of some of EU's austerity program
3. PMI Manufacturing will indicate expansion (score of 50 or more)

Participants: T. Aygun, K. Meenan

Feb 9-13: Earnings parade and a Grexit

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Alexei Tsipras and the Syriza party have rebuffed 5 years of austerity imposed on Greece but intend to steer a course that keeps the country in the Eurozone. The ECB's decision to no longer accept Greek sovereign debt as collateral on loans sent returns on the Greek 10-year to over 11%. Three-year Greek notes now yield over 19%.

24.3%

South Africa's unemployment rate, which dropped this Tuesday to a 1-year low

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Earnings Whiplash Slams GoPro, Pandora, Yelp, Stratasys, Barron's

Tech companies that were wrecked last week after just slight deviations from analyst expectations include Yelp, GoPro, Pandora, and Stratasys. Earnings day darlings included data-enriching software maker Tableau Software, VoIP consultants RingCentral, food delivery providers GrubHub, and mobile video game maker Glu Mobile. Forward prices to earnings multiple for these companies average out to about 70 times 2015 earnings.

ECB: Banks can't use Greek debt as collateral, CNBC via Yahoo Finance

The European Central Bank has revoked a waiver that allowed banks to use Greek government debt as collateral. The implications of this move are profound, including a risk of systemic counterparty risk throughout the Eurosystem. After US markets responded with a drop, it was announced later that Greek would still have access to the ECB's "emergency liquidity assistance" program, retaining a backstop for the beleaguered economy.

Job market looks ripe for liftoff, WSJ

US non-farm payrolls continued their hot streak, as the economy continued to add jobs with a consistency not seen since 1997. Average hourly earnings ($24.75) was up 0.5% last month and 2.2% over the past year. While the labor market still has room for improvement--as it moves closer to the 5.2-5.5% target--some economists argue that slews of retiring baby boomers mean we are closer to full labor participation than some may think.

Treasuries fall as US readies auctions, Microsoft sells bonds, Bloomberg
The combined effect of Microsoft's sale of $10.75 billion of bonds--the biggest issuance so far in 2015--more than Merck's $8 billion issue and Apple's $6.5 billion issue--and the US government's sale of up to $30 billion of 1-month Treasuries accounted for an influx of supply that pushed up yields across different bond markets. Cash-rich corporations are using the exceptionally low rate environment to lock in debt issues with maturities as long as decades into the future.

Vocabulary:

• Grexit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_withdrawal_from_the_eurozone
• Non-farm payrolls http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp
• JOLTS http://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/jolts.asp

Calendar: check Nasdaq Economic Calendar

• Mon Feb 9: Labor market conditions index; HAS, L, SOHU
• Tue Feb 10: Labor Dept JOLTS;  KO, CVS, TAP, SAVE, HOT
• Wed Feb 11: EIA Petroleum status report, Treasury budget; BIDU, FEYE, NVDA, PEP, TSLA, TRI, TWX, ZTS
• Thu Feb 12: Jobless claims, Retail sales; AIG, APA, DPS, GRPN, HSP, K, MANU, ZNGA
• Fri Feb 13: Import and export prices, Consumer sentiment; RRGB, SJM

Predictions from last week: score: 2/3 All-Time: 7/12

• Chipotle beats: CORRECT (on bottom line, missed on top line)
• Buffalo Wild Wings beats: WRONG (on bottom line, exceeded top line)
• Non-farm payrolls increase: CORRECT (by 250k+, Dec 2014 revised upwards)

Weekly Predictions: gathered at conclusion of weekly meeting

1. US import prices fall amid the strengthening dollar and stagnant global demand
2. Zoetis beats estimates on continued strength in pet and pet products
3. Oil prices rally against a new $50 resistance zone

Participants: R. Niu, S. Shah, K. Meenan, J. O'Brien

Feb 2-6: I'm lovin' it

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EURO 1.138 // OIL 50.85 // GOLD 1271 // BIT 240

With Seattle driving for a game-winning touchdown, New England cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) comes up with perhaps the greatest plays in Patriots history, securing the win with an interception. The thrilling Super Bowl ended up being the most watched television event in history, with a record 114.4 million people tuning in.

$18,000

Current price of a 500ml bottle of McDonald's Big Mac Special Sauce, being auctioned on eBay by McDonald's Australia. This is equivalent to about $23,000 Australian dollars. There are still 8 days left in the auction.

Super Bowl breaks record for US TV viewing, WSJ
Nielsen has reported that this year's Super Bowl, a nail-biter that saw the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks with less than a minute left, was the most watched US television event ever, attracting 114.4 million viewers. Super Bowl XLIX is the seventh straight Super Bowl to draw over 100 million viewers, and the 4th bowl game in 5 years to set an all-time record.

Shake Shack more than doubles its IPO price in market debut, DealBook
Shake Shack's IPO, with a stock price that more than doubled on it's first trading day from $21 to more than $45, revealed tremendous excitement for the current trend in investment in "fast casual" restaurants, including Zoe's Kitchen, El Pollo Loco, Chipotle, and Habit Restaurants. The public offering expanded the wealth of famous New York restauranteur Danny Meyer to $340 million. Meyer helped start Shake Shack to provide extra jobs to employees outside nightly work hours.

McDonalds will now accept selfies and hugs as payment, Business Insider
Starting on February 2nd and running until the 14th, McDonalds will allow customers to "pay with lovin'" (expressions of love including selfies and hugs) during predetermined times at certain stores. The company announced the Valentine's Day ad campaign during a commercial spot on the Super Bowl.

Chipotle is an expensive burrito, WSJ
Chipotle, which has provided a 632% return to investors since its IPO nine years ago, is set to report earnings on Tuesday amid a torrent of news and investment in other food chains. Chipotle, which was once almost entirely owned by McDonalds, stopped selling carnitas for a time after poor treatment of pigs by a supplier was revealed. Among other things, McDonald's is currently reeling from a beef scandal in China, which it said played a part in in EPS falling by 1% last quarter.

Why food prices won't fall as fast as gas prices, MarketWatch

Commodities traders are anticipating that lower fuel prices spell a continued fall in food commodity prices including fruits and meats. Oil prices have plummeted this summer, with other commodities struggling to keep up with the fall. Falling input costs could mean continued high margins at restaurant chains including Shake Shack and Habit Restaurants, both of which recently started trading publicly.

Vocabulary:
Fast casual
Nielsen
Danny Meyer
Malcolm Butler

Calendar, Dates: (Nasdaq Economic Calendar)

• Mon Feb 2: PMI Manufacturing, Construction spending; FLWS, RCII
• Tues Feb 3: Factory orders; ADM, AN, BP, CMG, NYT
• Weds Feb 4: ADP Employment, ISM Non-manufacturing index; UHAL, CLX, EVR, GM
• Thur Feb 5: International trade, Jobless claims, Productivity and costs; ATVI, BEBE, BWLD
• Fri Feb 6: Employment situation; MCO, MSG, WETF

Predictions from Jan 26-30: 1 / 3   All-Time: 5 / 9

• AAL beats: CORRECT
• CVX misses: WRONG
• Bitcoin up: WRONG

Predictions for Feb 2-6:

• Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) misses earnings on pork supplier problems
• Buffalo Wild Wings (NYSE: BWLD) beats forecasts on falling commodity prices
• Non-farm payrolls continue to increase as US economy improves

Participants: K. Meenan

Jan 26-30: Gyros and bits

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Global leaders from industry and government gathered this week in Davos,  Switzerland to discuss policy, problems, and possible solutions. Reports note a special focus on topics like "shared value," "creative capitalism," and "compassionate capitalism," perhaps suggesting CEOs' desire to improve the negative image of business around the world.

$43.50

Reported price of a hot dog at Davos (WSJ). Looks like the de-peg is already reaping some unintended consequences.

Oxfam presses Davos forum with wealth inequality claim, FT

Oxfam, the UK-based anti-poverty non-profit, issued a report last week noting that the richest 1% in the world will soon own more wealth than the rest of the world put together. Conversely, the report noted the "more than 1 billion people" living in absolute poverty with income of less than $1.25 a day.

Greece chooses anti-austerity party in major shift, NYT

The Greek people rejected austerity measures being imposed by the EU on Sunday by electing the leftist Syriza party into power, ousting the centrist New Democracy party. Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras declared in Athens that "Greece will now move ahead with hope and reach out to Europe, and Europe is going to change." Populist movements on the left and right in France, Spain, and Italy are also expected to gain ground in coming weeks.

Swiss miss, Economist

When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unpegged the currency from the euro last week, the market looked about as "wrong-footed" as it did in responding to the franc's original peg to the euro back in 2011. Retail brokerages--where mom-and-pop traders speculate on currencies expected to move in price by small fractions of a percent and where only tiny amounts of collateral were previously required--were devastated by the move, as clients trading on margin were forced to call in accounts.

Google wireless services aims to switch between carriers, WSJ

Google is shaking up another industry in aiming to give subscribers choice across a variety of wireless carriers and wifi signals in routing calls to one another. This challenges the current paradigm where contracts are signed between subscribers and service providers who provide reception through their network alone. The program is expected to be rolled out later this year throughout the US.

As commodities fall, some investors see reasons to buy, WSJ

After years of falling markets, some investors are betting we are presently at a price bottom across a variety of commodities markets. Despite record supplies resulting from decreased demand across Europe and developing world, among other reasons, investors perceive an opportunity particularly in agricultural commodities, which can respond faster to supply-demand changes as farmers manage crops on a season to season basis.

Vocabulary:
Contango http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contango.asp
Backwardation http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backwardation.asp
Bitcoin http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp

Calendar, Jan 26-30: (Nasdaq Economic Calendar)

• Jan 26: MSFT
• Jan 27: Durable goods orders, new home sales, consumer confidence; AAPL, YHOO, MMM, AAL, T, CAT, PFE, PG
• Jan 28: EIA petroleum status report, FOMC meeting announcement; BA, FB
• Jan 29: Jobless claims, pending new home sales index; BABA, AMZN, DOW, F, GOOG, JBLU, TWC
• Jan 30: GDP, PMI, consumer sentiment; CVX, LLY, MAT, XRX

Predictions from last week: 1.5/3 All-Time: 4/6

• NFLX beats: CORRECT
• LUV and UAL beat: CORRECT / WRONG
• ECB doesn't deviate: WRONG

Predictions Jan 26-30:

• AAL will beat estimates and adjust guidance upward based on peer performance
• CVX misses estimates on falling oil prices, declining investment
• Bitcoin price rises on news coverage and extra liquidity from Coinbase

Participants: J. O'Brien, K. Meenan, J. Ayat

Jan 20-23: Global woes and "whoa!"s

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EURO $1.1589 // OIL $47.59 // GOLD 1290

The newly-minted skyline of Shanghai's Pudong central district. China GDP growth of 7.4% beat analyst estimates but represents the country's slowest annual growth rate since 1990.

17 months

Amount of time it took for the Shanghai stock market to reach the volume of margin lending amassed by the NYSE after 13 years of trading (CNBC)

China's Economic Growth is Slowest in Decades, WSJ
China's economic growth slowed to 7.4% in 2014, beating estimates of 7.3% but touching on growth levels not seen since 1990. Beijing notes that 7% growth is the minimum necessary to create jobs given China's population. Slower growth is in-line with Communist leaders aiming for shifting the economy towards a model based on domestic consumption and services industries.

Swiss franc soars, stocks tank as Euro peg scrapped, CNBC
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the investing world on Thursday by removing its 3-year old peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. The Swiss franc drastically appreciated against global currencies in the span of several hours. Implications of the depegging include a slowdown in the Swiss economy as a result of expensive exports, and problems for currency traders and anyone with bets on stable rates.

QE is coming, but on German terms, Economist
When the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday January 22, is will have a momentous decision on its hands. Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, seems determined to pursue QE in some form. Whether or not the ECB buys sovereign debt in the weighted fashion economic size it has employed in the past, or if it focuses solely on the debt of ailing nations' economies, is yet to be seen.

Report says richest 1% will control most wealth by 2016, USA Today
According to Oxfam, a British charity dedicated to fighting poverty, the world's richest 1% will control over 50% of the world's wealth by 2016. The 80 richest people in the will own $1.9 trillion in wealth. In 2014, the richest The report was published in advance of this week's World Economic Forum to provoke discussion and change among world leaders.

Vocabulary:
Currency peg http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency-peg.asp
Sovereign debt http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-debt.asp
Covered bonds http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredbond.asp
Bundesbank http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bundesbank.asp
Oxfam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxfam

Calendar, Jan 20-23 (Nasdaq Economic Calendar)

• Jan 20: Housing market index; US State of the Union; earnings from JNJ, HAL, NFLX, MS
• Jan 21: Housing starts; AXP, EBAY, KMI, URI
• Jan 22: ECB meeting; PMI Manufacturing index; CP, LUV, SBUX, UAL
• Jan 23: Existing home sales; GE, KMB

Predictions from last week: 2/3 All-Time: 2/3

• Dollar strengthens: CORRECT
• Crude drops: WRONG
• Alcoa beats: CORRECT

Predictions Jan 20-23:

• NFLX beats estimates on strength of picking up Friends catalog
• LUV and UAL beat estimates following strong earnings from DAL
• ECB not deviating from weighted bond-buying approach

Participants: S. Ballantyne, K. Meenan

Jan 12-16: Je suis Charlie

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EURO $1.1835 // OIL $46.07 // GOLD 1238

World leaders gathered in Paris in the wake of coordinated terrorist attacks last week. The event saw Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas lock arms in solidarity against the violence.

$46.07

Closing price of the front-month futures contract for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, now trading at a level not seen since April 2009. WTI crude was trading at $107.26 this past June.

Paris March in Solidarity Against Terror Attacks Was Largest in French History, TIME

Heads of state from across the world joined with around 1 million marchers in the streets of Paris on Sunday in the largest procession through the city since the end of World War II. The march followed a 2.5 mile route through the city; marchers were watched by sharpshooters on buildings overhead. Notably absent from the group was US President Obama. Following criticism, the Obama administration apologized for their "mistake" in not attending.

Oil Settles Below $47 as Goldman Cuts Outlook, MarketWatch

Monday's drop in the price of oil follows cuts from both Goldman Sachs and SocGen on their projections for oil prices through 2016. Goldman has targets of $41, $39, and $65 for oil in 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Saudi prince al-Waleed bin Talal was quoted as saying we will "never again" see oil above $100 a barrel.

Companies Break a Sweat as Dollar Catches Fire, CNBC

As the US Dollar spikes to its highest levels in 12 years, pundits worry about negative effects on US trade and manufacturing due to the relatively-expensive nature of US exports. Any negative effects would counteract benefits from the dollar's strength including increased purchasing power of American companies abroad, and the check a strong dollar puts on inflation. McDonalds, General Mills, Nike, and Costco have all publicly stated that currency effects will crimp earnings in 2015.

ECB's Bond-Buying Plans Face Doubt, WSJ

As the dollar gains, the euro continues to slide as the ECB debates purchasing sovereign debt of struggling participant states. Concern among stronger economies including Germany warn of the moral hazard of "bailing out" eurozone governments that have made imprudent decisions. Asset purchases by central banks, referred to as "quantitative easing" or "QE," are designed--among other things--to drive down borrowing costs, encouraging households and businesses to invest and spend.

Vocabulary:

Charlie Hebdo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Hebdo

ECB http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/europeancentralbank.asp

QE http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp

WTI http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wti.asp

Brent http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/northseabrentcrude.asp

Calendar, Jan 12-16 (Nasdaq Economic Calendar):

• Mon 12th: earnings from AA
• Tue 13th: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; KBH
• Wed 14th: Retail Sales, Import and Export Prices; JPM, WFC 
• Thu 15th: Jobless Claims, PPI, Empire Manufacturing Index; C, INTC, SLB
• Fri 16th: CPI, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment; GS

Predictions, Jan 12-16

• Dollar will continue strengthening dollar index continues to rise
• Crude prices will continue to drop
• Alcoa (AA) will beat earnings on Jan 12

Participants: J. O'Brien, J. Ayat, S. Ballantyne, K. Meenan